The two types of pathway have different implications for greenhouse gas emissions, as well as for climate change impacts and for achieving sustainable development. Any alternative situation in which global temperature continues to rise, exceeding 1.5☌ permanently until the end of the 21st century, is not considered to be a 1.5☌ pathway. The latter is often referred to as an ‘overshoot’ pathway. The second pathway sees warming exceed 1.5☌ around mid-century, remain above 1.5☌ for a maximum duration of a few decades, and return to below 1.5☌ before 2100. The first involves global temperature stabilizing at or below before 1.5☌ above pre-industrial levels.
This IPCC special report identifies two main pathways that explore global warming of 1.5☌. There is no single, definitive pathway to limiting warming to 1.5☌. The different possibilities are often referred to as ‘greenhouse gas emission pathways’. Scientists use computer models to simulate the emissions of greenhouse gases that would be consistent with different levels of warming. Countries’ pledges to reduce their emissions are currently not in line with limiting global warming to 1.5☌. Another sees global temperature temporarily exceed 1.5☌ before coming back down. One stabilizes global temperature at, or just below, 1.5☌. This Special Report identifies two main conceptual pathways to illustrate different interpretations.
Summary : There is no definitive way to limit global temperature rise to 1.5☌ above pre-industrial levels. Evelina Trutnevyte (Switzerland, Lithuania)įAQ 2.1: What Kind of Pathways Limit Warming to 1.5☌ and Are We on Track?.Christina Schädel (United States, Switzerland).Lena Höglund-Isaksson (Austria, Sweden).Edgar Hertwich (United States, Austria).
Oreane Edelenbosch (Italy, Netherlands).
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